Spectacular sunshine across Southern Arizona this Friday…here’s the view from Joseph Miller’s Summerhaven Webcam. That’ll be the place to beat the heat this holiday weekend, with highs in the 70’s and overnight lows in the 50’s.

So the atmosphere has pretty much been scoured of Monsoon moisture. Case in point, the graph on the left which shows the dew point (green line) since 10 am Wednesday. A fairly dramatic drop in that dew point occurred yesterday, where we went from the mid 50’s to the upper 30’s! Hear that…it’s Fall knocking on the door.

As much as we’ve dried out at the surface, the light blue color over southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico indicates some mid level moisture’s hanging around. Because of that, I think isolated mountain storms are possible through the weekend, including Mount Lemmon. Unless we regain good Monsoon moisture (which currently is in southern Sonora & Sinaloa), valley floors will be thunder free.

Peering into the future, the models are pointing at the Monsoon’s knockout blow coming by the middle of next week with a strong Pacific trough (the big U shape over northern California/western Nevada). If this holds serve & we don’t get a tropical system steered into southern Arizona (which appears unlikely), Monsoon 2010 will be finished.

Speaking of tropical systems, Hurricane Earl continues to lash the eastern seaboard today. While the brunt of Earl is over the ocean, its going to make for a soggy weekend from the Hamptons (I can hear George Constanza now) up to Nantucket.

Right now, Earl is a category 1 hurricane with max winds at 85 mph. While the East Coast appears to be spared, Earl’s taking aim at the Canadian Maritimes, where it will strike Nova Scotia & PEI as a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning.

Being that it is the Labor Day holiday and the weather across southern Arizona looks to be quiet, I’ll probably be off the site this weekend. I’ll be holding down the fort at KVOA all weekend though, starting with News 4 Tucson at 4 pm today. Your forecast will also be on the print side, starting with tomorrow’s Arizona Daily Star. Have a safe & fun weekend!

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Lots of pomp & no circumstance Sunday, as a rare Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for southeastern Arizona. I didn’t hear of any storm damage, but Douglas picked up a record 1.17″ rain today. That breaks the old record of 0.37″ on this date in 1957.

Much calmer weather to start your work week, as a Pacific trough dries out the area. Only the higher terrain of southern Arizona could see an isolated storm or two through Tuesday. Our Monsoon high reorganizes over west Texas/New Mexico by mid-week, with isolated storms (and the triple digits) returning to Tucson.

Taking the next few days off to recover from this weekend’s Monsoon mayhem…be back on the site Friday. Have a great week!

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A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issed for Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham, Greenlee & Gila Counties until 7 pm tonight. This includes the Tucson metro, Nogales, Sierra Vista, Douglas, Safford, Globe & surrounding communities.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for storms to produce destructive winds and large hail.

While the Tucson metro & Nogales is in the watch area, I think the best chance for severe storms will be in Cochise, Graham & Greenlee Counties through the evening hours. Areas west of there could see a few isolated storms, but the real action should avoid the Tucson metro today. I’ll have Live Tucson Radar running through the day…I’ll also have a Storm Alert update at 4 pm on KVOA News 4.

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Oy. Vey. The Monsoon struck Tucson with a fury Saturday night, causing downed trees, flooded roads & a swift water rescue. This image was caught by News 4 viewer Alan Olsen…as a reminder, we love your weather photos, so send them to newstips@kvoa.com!

Rainfall totals were impressive, with 22nd Street & Palo Verde picking up a whopping 1.72″ in about 45 minutes. Officially, 0.22″ rain fell at the Tucson Airport Saturday. Click here to see how much rain fell in your neighborhood Saturday night, courtesy of the Tucson National Weather Service.

Hope you all enjoyed Saturday night’s show, because a much quieter pattern is taking shape. I’ll have your forecast in Sunday’s Arizona Daily Star & Sunday night on News 4 Tucson at 10.

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A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for east central Pima County until 2:45 pm. This includes the Tucson Airport and Rita Ranch areas. As stated in the post prior, this storm is capable of damaging wind as it moves east at 5 mph.

Torrential rain is also expected with this slow mover, which is why a Flash Flood Warning has been issued for the same area until 3:15 pm. Expect area washes & streams to be flooded south of the I-10 cooridoor.

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Strong thunderstorms are starting to develop this afternoon, mainly east of a Casa Grande-Sells line. The storms I’m most concerned about right now are the ones out in Avra Valley, near the Tucson Airport and in western Cochise County. These are capable of wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail and locally heavy rain. Everything is moving to the east-northeast at 10 mph.

I expect continued development of scattered storms this afternoon and evening, with a few storms potentially reaching severe limits. I’ll have Storm Alert updates on News 4 Tucson beginning at 4 pm…Live Tucson Radar will be running all day for you on the site.

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The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for east central Pima County until 2:15 pm. As you can see from radar, this includes Green Valley and Sahuarita.

This slow-moving thunderstorm is capable of dumping as much as 2″ rain in an hour’s time, which will cause flooding of washes and streams. Expect a slow go of it on I-19 & South Nogales Highway for the next hour, with storm movement to the east at 10 mph.

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What a strange week weather-wise…anybody else wake up around 4 am to loud thunder? Here’s the University of Arizona webcam around quarter to noon & already we’re seeing towering storm clouds over the mountains. Fasten your seatbelts for what appears to be an active Friday…

Radar at 11:45 am is showing scattered storms breaking out in the higher terrain. While that doesn’t seem out of the ordinary, the movement of these storms is east-northeast. That’s unusual for the Monsoon, as storms usually move east to west or northeast to southwest.

The reason we’re seeing this is thanks to a fall-like storm system over the West Coast, with the Monsoon high parked in central Texas. This strange pattern will continue to aid in the development of scattered storms this afternoon & evening across southern Arizona. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, as the ground is fairly saturated from this week’s storms.

Looks like the primetime for storms in Tucson will be through the early evening, which may coincide with tonight’s high school football games. Make sure to grab the rain coat & towel to dry off those bleachers tonight!

I’ll be tracking the storms tonight on News 4 Tucson, starting at 4 pm. Look for live Monsoon Storm Alert cut-ins from me at 2 and 3 pm. As always, Live Tucson Radar’s got you covered through the afternoon & evening. See you all tonight!

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Couldn’t help but start with the obligatory lightning photo from yesterday’s storms…many thanks to News 4 viewer Chad Robinson who caught this near Benson. Copious amounts of rain Tuesday, with the Tucson Airport receiving a record 1.21″ for August 24th…click here to check out Southern Arizona’s final rainfall totals courtesy of NWS Tucson.

Metro Tucson/Oracle took a direct hit yesterday, with 7 reports of wind damage, 2 reports of lightning-caused fires, 5 flash flood reports & a measured wind gust of 63 mph at Ryan Airfield. I should also add that there was a measured 60 mph wind gust in Oracle.

Outside of the metro saw several reports of flash flooding, as highway 191 south of Safford was closed for a time Tuesday. A cluster of storms sat over Southwest Cochise County last night, flooding roadways in Sierra Vista & near Whetstone. As of 11 am today, the Hereford Road bridge over the San Pedro River remains closed due to flooding. Oddly, not included in this report is the wind damage that occurred in Benson.

As far as today’s forecast, a repeat performance is not in the cards. Outside of a couple isolated mountaintop storms, Southern Arizona will be dry Wednesday as the atmosphere recovers.

Have a great Wednesday!

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Many thanks to News 4 viewer Coppelia Tarantal for this image near Speedway & Swan…that was some afternoon wasn’t it? Not going to lie…didn’t think today’s set-up was the greatest for an event like this. But factor in a daytime high of 106 & about three day’s worth of atmospheric energy that hasn’t been ignited…boom goes the dynamite! Here’s the timeline of Tuesday’s Monsoon madness…

This was the radar image around 4 pm Tuesday. The storms around Oracle and Benson were big severe weather producers…with a measured 60 mph wind gust in Oracle (thanks Mike!) and several large trees downed in Benson. About an hour earlier, Midtown, the Tucson Airport and southwest side were slammed with 60 mph winds & torrential rains. Driving into the KVOA studios this afternoon was an adventure to say the least, with several intersections flooded in several feet of water & lots of tree limbs scattered in the streets.

The image above is the radar estimated storm rainfall totals…color scale (in inches) on the left side. Ryan Airfield, the Tucson Airport and east of Oracle hit the jackpot on rainfall totals. Officially, it was a record setting one day rain event at the Tucson Airport, with 1.21″ rainfall (old record was 0.93″ in 1986). Un-officially, I think Tucson’s back into a Monsoon rainfall surplus! Safe to say places in Midtown got about 1.50″ today, with the northwest side getting a measly quarter-inch. Here’s my crude list of rainfall totals (as of 8 pm)…I’ll post a complete list of rainfall totals Wednesday.

Oracle Fire Dept. = 3.34″
Tucson International Airport = 1.12″
Tucson Electric Park= 1.06″
Vahala Park (SW side) = 1.06″
Vail = 0.94″
Tanque Verde Wash @ Guest Ranch = 0.87″
Vail = 0.94″
Tucson Mountain Foothills = 0.67″
Oro Valley = 0.51″
Sabino Canyon = 0.35″

That brings us to the now (8:50 pm at the time of this writing)…with widespread showers and storms east of an Oracle-Arivaca line. An Urban & Small Stream Flood Advisory is in effect for Eastern Pima, Southeast Pinal, Cochise, Santa Cruz, Southern Graham & Southern Greenlee Counties until 12 am. This batch of storms isn’t moving much, but is diminishing in size and intensity. I think this batch will probably wind down after midnight, with measurable rainfall up to an inch for Vail, Benson, Sonoita, Sierra Vista & Hereford. Be advised that washes & streams will be flowing for several hours around Southern Arizona.

My initial thought closing out the night would be that our massive complex of storms today will lead to a much quieter Wednesday. I’ll jump back on in the morning with a look at what to expect for your Wednesday…see you then!

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